Trade Distribution Modeling
Analyze return distributions to uncover hidden risks and opportunities that summary statistics obscure.
6 lessons · 53 min total
1
Distribution of Trade Returns
Examine how trade returns are distributed and why that shape tells you everything about your risk, volatility, and potential.
9 min read
2
Risk of Ruin
Compute the probability of account wipeout given your win rate, payoff ratio, and risk per trade to ensure long-term survival.
9 min read
3
Position Sizing Based on Confidence Intervals
Size positions based on statistical certainty rather than emotion, using confidence intervals from your actual track record.
8 min read
4
Optimal Withdrawal & Growth Strategy
Manage your equity curve with a disciplined compounding and withdrawal plan that prevents reckless growth from becoming destruction.
8 min read
5
Trade Expectancy Trees
Visualize probable outcomes using branching decision trees to model strategy behavior and master your mental game.
9 min read
6
Value at Risk & CVaR
Understand VaR and Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall) for measuring tail risk in your trade distribution.
10 min read